FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – As the nations of the world prepare to gather for another climate summit next month in Glasgow, the OPEC oil cartel recalls that it believes crude will continue to rise. be the main source of energy for decades, especially as the world’s less wealthy countries seek higher growth and a higher standard of living.
OPEC says more electric vehicles on the road and the promotion of alternative and renewable energies will indeed usher in an era of declining oil demand in rich countries.
But the energy needs of expanding economies in other parts of the world will still leave oil as the world’s primary energy source until 2045, OPEC said in its annual World Oil Outlook on Tuesday.
The long-term report comes amid sharply rising oil and gas prices. Brent crude hit over $ 80 a barrel on Tuesday, a three-year high, while the US oil benchmark hit $ 75.92, also a three-year high. Hurricane Ida slammed into a critical port that serves as the primary support center for the offshore oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States
At the same time, OPEC has slowly increased production after drastic cuts in 2020 at the height of the pandemic.
“What is clear from this year’s WOO is that the demand for energy and oil increased dramatically in 2021, after the massive drop in 2020, and continued expansion is expected in the longer term,” says The report. “Global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 28% between 2020 and 2045, with all the energies needed, driven by an expected doubling in the size of the global economy and the addition of around 1.7 billion people in the world by 2045. “
Only coal will be used less, while other energy sources will see increasing demand, although the share will shift to include a larger proportion for renewables, nuclear and natural gas, according to the group.
The 340-page report sketches a future of declining demand for oil in richer countries that belong to the 38-member Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, as efforts to tackle climate change take hold. the form of renewable energies and alternative fuels in cars, planes and boats. It predicts that the global vehicle fleet will grow from 1.1 billion to 2.6 billion by the end of the reporting period in 2045 – and that 500 million of them would be electric, or 20% of all vehicles.
But population growth and the expansion of the middle classes in the rest of the world, including China and India, will lead to an increase in oil demand between 2020 and 2045, although much of that increase takes place in the region. beginning of this period, according to the report of the OPEC secretariat. said in Vienna.
Oil will meet 28.1% of global energy demand by 2045, against 30% in 2020, but ahead of natural gas with 24.4% and coal with 17.4%. Hydroelectric, nuclear and biomass energy sources and other renewable energies such as wind and solar make up the rest.
One of the main reasons given for the decline in energy consumption in more developed countries was demographics: shrinking and aging populations that lead to lower economic growth.
The report notes that growing awareness of the need to accelerate actions to tackle climate change has led to ambitious new policy intentions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. European Union, United States, Japan, UK, Canada and Brazil have proposed roadmaps to achieve new goals.
OPEC, however, noted “considerable doubts as to whether all of these ambitious climate mitigation commitments will be met within the proposed time frame.” For example, the European Union announced in July its Fit for 55 package, in which the bloc of 27 countries pledged to reduce emissions by 55% from 1990 levels by 2030. OPEC has said the plan “remains exactly that for now, a plan, which has yet to be negotiated and approved by all EU member states, leaving plenty of room for exceptions and dilution.”
The UK will host the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference from October 31 to November 31. 12 in Glasgow, Scotland, where national leaders will look for ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit the rise in global temperatures.